US CFTC Probes Abnormal Oil Trades Before Trump Iran Policy Shift

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating a series of "well-timed" oil trades that occurred before major shifts in President Trump's Iran policy. According to sources familiar with the matter, the timing of these trades was unusually precise, raising concerns about insider trading.

Focus of Investigation: Two Key Events

The CFTC investigation focuses on at least two instances of surging trading volume before major announcements within about two weeks.

Event one occurred on March 23. About 15 minutes before Trump announced via Truth Social that he would postpone a strike on Iranian energy facilities, billions of dollars worth of crude oil and stock index futures saw abnormal trading. Trump's statement caused oil prices to plunge and stocks to surge.

Event two occurred on April 7. Several hours before Trump announced a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, futures activity increased markedly. Reports indicate that less than three hours before the ceasefire announcement, investors suddenly sold 8,600 Brent and WTI futures contracts during the inactive period after market settlement, with total open positions worth about $950 million. The news caused crude futures to plunge about 15% at the next day's open.

Scope and Methods of Investigation

The CFTC is investigating crude oil futures contracts traded on platforms of CME Group Inc. and Intercontinental Exchange Inc. Regulators have asked both exchanges to provide relevant data, including so-called "Tag 50 identifiers" that can identify the entities behind the trades.

Since WTI crude trades on CME's New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the CFTC can directly access data. But for Brent crude traded in London, any data request must go through the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

Political Pressure and Next Steps

Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse have urged the CFTC to investigate these abnormal trades, questioning whether there has been repeated misuse of material non-public government information. Last month, the White House also issued an internal memo warning employees not to use sensitive information to trade in financial markets or event-driven betting platforms.

CFTC Enforcement Director David Miller said in late March that the agency is monitoring potential misconduct in crude futures trading, but declined to comment on specific investigations. CME, ICE and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.