2026 MWC Shanghai observations: 6G and satellite internet enter the 'how to do / how to reduce costs' phase

Recently, the 2026 MWC Shanghai opened as scheduled. Unlike last year's intense atmosphere of 5G-A commercial orders, this year's exhibition focused more on the calculation of "when technology turns into real money." The "6G Industry Ecosystem Zone" and "Future Constellation" satellite area, set up independently for the first time, attracted crowds, but the industry was more keen on measuring input and payoff from a pragmatic perspective.

On the 6G front, the three major paths—integrated sensing and communication (ISAC), AI-native, and space-terrestrial integration—are undisputed, with chipmakers even starting pre-research stockpiling early. In satellite internet, the "land grab" for orbital spectrum resources is largely over, with large-scale networking and cost reduction becoming the new theme. However, consensus ends at the technical level: terminal manufacturers and investment institutions are mostly on hold—the former waiting for killer apps, the latter unable to calculate return cycles. Even international satellite players that have achieved profitability struggle in early civil market cultivation.

With the financial payback of 5G investments not yet fully settled, 6G and satellite internet are collectively entering a transition period of "clear vision, difficult payoff." The technological path narrows, while commercial options broaden. Under realistic return-on-investment constraints, the industry needs a more pragmatic answer than "grand narratives."

6G tech paths converge: from concept to system verification

Entering the 6G industry ecosystem exhibition area in Hall N3 of MWC Shanghai, five sections—Beijing 6G Lab general area, communication enhancement, ISAC, integrated communication-computing-intelligence, and space-terrestrial integration—present the core 6G technology vision clearly. On-site staff explain that this is the first time MWC Shanghai has had a dedicated 6G hall, marking a shift from conceptual discussion to critical system verification.

"If last year everyone was still debating what 6G should do, this year the debate is how to do it and what trade-offs to make," said a technician from Beijing 6G Lab's general area. Currently, the three enhancement paths—ISAC, AI-native, and space-terrestrial integration—have formed industry consensus, with key technologies like terahertz communication and intelligent reflecting surfaces entering prototype verification.

Upstream players are accelerating their layout pace. At the exhibition, Qualcomm demonstrated an end-to-end 6G prototype system; Galaxy Space publicly showcased its self-developed second-generation phased array antenna for direct-to-cell for the first time at the 6G ecosystem zone; vivo exhibited its 6G pre-research prototype and technology roadmap. Unlike Xiaomi's focus on underlying transmission algorithms and OPPO's focus on communication paradigm innovation, vivo's display leaned toward end-to-end system and application deployment, featuring a complete 6G test system covering MR terminal, 6G UE, 6G base station (RAN), and core network.

A domestic chipmaker's on-site representative said the internal 6G pre-research team size has doubled year-on-year, with clear logic: "It will be too late to start after standard freeze; tech reserves must be built ahead."

However, terminal makers are more cautious. Blue Whale Tech asked several phone brands about their 6G terminal plans; most responded with "closely monitoring," with few consumer-grade 6G product demos on display. A 6G pre-research director from a top-five phone maker said in informal discussion that it is currently difficult to outline a clear 6G phone commercial roadmap. The core reason is not insufficient tech capability, but that terminal-side conversion from user needs and application scenarios is still under evaluation; also, 5G experience dividends have not been fully unleashed, and 6G's envisioned holographic immersion and multi-sensory scenes are still some way from mass consumer market.

Investors are similarly cautious. An early-stage investor who viewed the 6G demo said that from an investment perspective, 5G's capital return is still being digested; 6G's subsequent R&D and network deployment investment scale is massive, and exit cycles and return expectations currently lack sufficient data support. For now, tracking and observation continue, with investment timing awaiting clearer commercial signals.

'Future Constellation' zone: large-scale networking and cost reduction as main themes

Unlike the 6G zone's focus on key tech verification, the first-time 'Future Constellation' satellite industry zone shows a different industry rhythm—orbit pattern is taking shape, and participants enter a phase of intensive resource and cost management.

Domestic low-orbit broadband and narrowband constellation operators like SpaceTime Walkway, GuoDian High-Tech, and Yuanxin Satellite set up booths alongside international players like Iridium. SpaceTime demonstrated true low-orbit satellite internet terminal equipment for ships and desert mines; GuoDian promoted Tianqi constellation's IoT application cases; Yuanxin engineers conducted live video calls via the 'Qianfan' constellation.

An on-site representative from GuoDian said: "The scramble for satellite internet orbit and frequency resources is largely over; the current focus is large-scale deployment and cost control." He revealed that batch production costs of narrowband communication payloads continue to decline, but satellite internet service user scale has not yet reached breakeven. At least for the next few years, government and industry orders will remain the basic revenue support.

During profit model formation, terminal cost is a noteworthy link. Reporters asked antenna and module vendors about satellite communication terminal material costs. Respondents generally said costs are rapidly falling, already capable of integration into mainstream phones, but most did not disclose specific numbers.

An Iridium booth business manager said Iridium has achieved positive cash flow via narrowband voice and low-speed data services, but traditional market space is nearing saturation. Future growth needs to expand to IoT and emergency communications. Domestic low-orbit broadband constellations are still in a scale-first catch-up stage; achieving breakeven requires time and user accumulation.